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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 3

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(:50) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP