Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(10:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to SF 20, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 19-J.Cowing to SF 28 for 8 yards (89-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.75 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model