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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 16 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +3.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP