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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 19 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to SF 10, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model