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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Miami Dolphins 19

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds. PENALTY on SF-22-I.Yiadom, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP