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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Miami Dolphins 29

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 32-P.Taylor (8-J.Holland).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.19 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 18, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.31 EP