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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIA 23, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-M.Washington to MIA 30 for 7 yards (53-D.Winters).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.46 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model