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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: DAL-79-M.Waletzko has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model