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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

TB
63.9%
DAL
36.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Cooper Rush (DAL) -0.086 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.139 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
DAL 19
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TB

Antoine Winfield S Out Knee
Kameron Johnson WR Out Ankle
K.J. Britt LB Doubtful Ankle
Cade Otton TE Doubtful Knee
Mike Edwards S Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Jalen Brooks WR Out Knee
Trevon Diggs CB Out Knee
T.J. Bass G Questionable Thigh
Micah Parsons DE Questionable Illness
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Jourdan Lewis CB Questionable Elbow
Juanyeh Thomas S Questionable Knee
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 24
–
DAL 26

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:10 FG DAL (9:10) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. TB 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 02:53 TD DAL (2:53) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea]. TB 0 – DAL 9
  • Q2 11:34 TD TB (11:34) 7-B.Irving right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – DAL 10
  • Q2 09:20 FG DAL (9:20) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: DAL-79-M.Waletzko has returned to the game. TB 7 – DAL 13
  • Q2 01:48 TD DAL (1:48) 15-E.Elliott left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – DAL 19
  • Q2 00:54 TD TB (:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-J.McMillan for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – DAL 20
  • Q2 00:05 FG DAL (:05) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: TB-26-K.Merriweather has returned to the game. TB 14 – DAL 23
  • Q3 06:38 FG DAL (6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. TB 14 – DAL 26
  • Q3 00:34 FG TB (:34) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. TB 17 – DAL 26
  • Q4 02:40 TD TB (2:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-R.Miller for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – DAL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 61%

    (9:10) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 41%

    (5:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 17-S.Shepard.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:18) 5-J.Browning punts 41 yards to DAL 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:55) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to TB 31, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer to TB 38 for 7 yards (24-I.Mukuamu). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 38.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 80%

    (9:20) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: DAL-79-M.Waletzko has returned to the game.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (4:23) 5-J.Browning punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 15 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 61%

    (:05) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: TB-26-K.Merriweather has returned to the game.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 73%

    (6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (:34) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:47) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to TB 6, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer to TB 5 for -1 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on TB-29-C.Izien, Illegal Blindside Block, 3 yards, enforced at TB 6.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:19) 5-J.Browning punts 54 yards to DAL 32, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 34 for 2 yards (44-S.Tucker). PENALTY on TB-51-J.Russell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 34.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 41%

    (7:38) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to TB 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:57) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to TB 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer to TB 23 for 8 yards (43-K.Hall). PENALTY on TB-48-A.Grier, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 23.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:52) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 26 for 16 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).