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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 5-J.Browning punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model