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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model