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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(:34) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model