Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 86

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 5-J.Browning punts 54 yards to DAL 32, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 34 for 2 yards (44-S.Tucker). PENALTY on TB-51-J.Russell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.13 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 86, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model