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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to TB 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer to TB 23 for 8 yards (43-K.Hall). PENALTY on TB-48-A.Grier, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.10 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model