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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 26 for 16 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP