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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 17-S.Shepard.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.73 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model