Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 78

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to TB 31, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer to TB 38 for 7 yards (24-I.Mukuamu). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model