Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 31

(12:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to IND 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 22 for 4 yards (51-C.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.05 EP
69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model