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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

TEN
41.6%
IND
58.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (IND): -0.071 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Joe Flacco in place of Anthony Richardson)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TEN

Luke Gifford LB Out Concussion
Colton Dowell WR Out Knee
Kenneth Murray LB Questionable Hamstring
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Ankle
Jaelyn Duncan T Questionable Hamstring
Nick Folk K Questionable Abdomen
Will Levis QB Questionable Right Shoulder
Otis Reese LB Questionable Ankle

IND

E.J. Speed LB Out Knee
Alec Pierce WR Out Concussion
Mo Alie-Cox TE Questionable Hip
Ashton Dulin WR Questionable Ankle
Matt Gay K Questionable Neck
Julius Brents CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 30
–
IND 38

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:53 TD TEN (7:53) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 11:05 TD IND (11:05) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – IND 6
  • Q2 07:36 TD IND (7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – IND 13
  • Q2 02:13 FG IND (2:13) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 7 – IND 17
  • Q2 00:22 TD IND (:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – IND 23
  • Q3 14:53 TD IND (14:53) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: TEN-56-K.Murray has returned to the game. TEN 7 – IND 30
  • Q3 06:53 TD IND (6:53) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – IND 37
  • Q3 03:02 TD TEN (3:02) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-98-R.Davis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs. TEN 13 – IND 38
  • Q4 08:19 TD TEN (8:19) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – IND 38
  • Q4 02:56 TD TEN (2:56) 61-J.Ojukwu and 98-J.Simmons reported in as eligible. 2-T.Spears up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 28 – IND 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to IND 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-J.Hardee.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:06) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 35 for 8 yards (59-C.McGrone; 85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 39%

    (6:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 43 for 6 yards (37-A.Hooker).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 73%

    (14:16) 7-B.Narveson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:43) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:29) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to IND 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 22 for 14 yards (92-J.Harrell).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (2:13) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to IND 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 22 for 4 yards (51-C.Gray).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 27 for 6 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%

    (10:36) 7-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 29 for 9 yards (50-S.Olubi).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 49%

    (:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.