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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 27 for 6 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP