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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 35 for 8 yards (59-C.McGrone; 85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.46 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model