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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Tennessee Titans 15

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 7-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model