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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Tennessee Titans 30

What Actually Happened

(:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.75 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.24 EP