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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 43 for 6 yards (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model