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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 7-B.Narveson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model