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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 6-J.Conner right guard to LA 14 for no gain (8-J.Verse, 48-O.Speights).

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model