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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Saturday 2024-12-28 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ARI
47.6%
LA
52.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.112 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ARI 24
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ARI

Joey Blount S Out Ribs
Elijah Jones CB Out Ankle
Matt Prater K Out Left Knee
Trey Benson RB Questionable Ankle
Evan Brown G Questionable Neck
Baron Browning LB Questionable Neck
James Conner RB Questionable Knee

LA

Rob Havenstein T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 9
–
LA 13

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 03:28 TD LA (3:28) 23-K.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:32 FG LA (:32) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 0 – LA 10
  • Q3 08:35 TD ARI (8:35) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LA 10
  • Q4 14:04 FG ARI (14:04) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. ARI 9 – LA 10
  • Q4 06:36 FG LA (6:36) 16-J.Karty 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 9 – LA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 41%

    (13:22) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to ARI 3, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (9:20) 10-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to LA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:23) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to ARI 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:15) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to ARI 4, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 19 for 15 yards (86-C.Parkinson).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%

    (11:10) 6-J.Conner right guard to LA 14 for no gain (8-J.Verse, 48-O.Speights).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (9:35) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 30, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-42-D.Taylor-Demerson, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 30.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:41) 10-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to LA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 34%

    (1:51) 10-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to LA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 73%

    (:32) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:29) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 10 for no gain (19-X.Smith).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (14:04) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (6:36) 16-J.Karty 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at LA 0. 26-K.Kinchens to LA 11 for 11 yards (14-Mi.Wilson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:09) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to ARI 36, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.