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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 10-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to LA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.65 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP