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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:32) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.01 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model