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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 16-J.Karty 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model