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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 10-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to LA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.46 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP