Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 83

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Arizona Cardinals 9

(2:09) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to ARI 36, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.74 EP
46% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model