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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.49 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model