Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.183 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.173 EPA/dropback
- TB offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
CAR
TB
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:38 TD TB (11:38) 77-J.Skule reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – TB 6
- Q1 08:20 TD CAR (8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TB 7
- Q1 01:16 FG TB (1:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. CAR 7 – TB 10
- Q2 10:35 FG TB (10:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. CAR 7 – TB 13
- Q2 08:24 TD TB (8:24) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – TB 19
- Q2 01:17 TD TB (1:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 15-J.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – TB 26
- Q2 00:56 TD CAR (:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – TB 27
- Q3 05:52 TD TB (5:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 87-P.Durham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – TB 33
- Q3 05:30 TD TB (5:30) 10-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 9-J.Tryon, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at CAR 23. 51-J.Russell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – TB 40
- Q4 13:36 TD TB (13:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-J.McMillan for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – TB 47
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(1:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 19 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(15:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to TB 39, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-41-J.Windmon.
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Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%
(10:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:16) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(6:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to TB 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-45-C.Gill.
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Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59%
(:28) 5-J.Browning punts 52 yards to CAR 24, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Palmer to TB 6 for -1 yards (42-S.Franklin).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(5:30) 10-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 9-J.Tryon, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at CAR 23. 51-J.Russell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Palmer to TB 15 for 2 yards (49-J.Rhattigan; 88-D.Chisena).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 58%
(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 48 for -9 yards (90-L.Hall).