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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to TB 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-45-C.Gill.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model