Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Carolina Panthers 14

(:28) 5-J.Browning punts 52 yards to CAR 24, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.47 EP
41% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model