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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Palmer to TB 6 for -1 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model