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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 11 at the 39
Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48
What Actually Happened
(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 48 for -9 yards (90-L.Hall).
The Three Options
GO
-0.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.11 EP
- 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
KICK
-0.12 EP
- 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
- 42% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT
-0.62 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
