4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP