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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to PHI 19, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.54 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP