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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2024-12-29 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

DAL
19.7%
PHI
80.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.097 vs Cooper Rush (DAL) -0.069 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DAL 16
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DAL

Kemon Hall CB Out Hamstring
CeeDee Lamb WR Out Shoulder
Amani Oruwariye CB Out Foot
T.J. Bass G Doubtful Thigh
Asim Richards T Questionable Ankle
Jalen Brooks WR Questionable Knee
Chuma Edoga T Questionable Toe
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Calf
Jalen Tolbert WR Questionable Finger
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot
Donovan Wilson S Questionable Knee

PHI

Britain Covey WR Out Neck
Jalen Hurts QB Out Concussion
Will Shipley RB Out Concussion
Nakobe Dean LB Doubtful Abdomen
Bryce Huff DE Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 7
–
PHI 41

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:55 TD PHI (11:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Gardner-Johnson [93-M.Williams] at PHI 31. 8-C.Gardner-Johnson for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 05:42 TD DAL (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – PHI 7
  • Q2 06:44 TD PHI (6:44) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – PHI 13
  • Q2 01:58 FG PHI (1:58) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. DAL 7 – PHI 17
  • Q2 00:02 TD PHI (:02) 7-K.Pickett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – PHI 23
  • Q3 08:07 FG PHI (8:07) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. DAL 7 – PHI 27
  • Q3 02:48 TD PHI (2:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – PHI 33
  • Q4 10:09 TD PHI (10:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – PHI 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:37) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to DAL 9, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:03) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 36, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 37 for 1 yard (47-D.Harris; 41-N.Vigil).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:04) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (12:56) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to PHI 19, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 78%

    (4:55) (No Huddle) 7-K.Pickett up the middle to DAL 28 for 2 yards (28-M.Hooker).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (1:58) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (8:07) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:43) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean ran ob at PHI 35 for 14 yards (40-H.Luepke).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 15 at the 43 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 45%

    (4:46) 17-B.Aubrey 61 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 48%

    (2:32) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback. Penalty on PHI-21-S.Brown, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on DAL-32-T.Pride, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on DAL-83-J.Brooks, Disqualification, offsetting.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:09) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to PHI 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.