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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (No Huddle) 7-K.Pickett up the middle to DAL 28 for 2 yards (28-M.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.26 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model