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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.95 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model