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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP