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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 43

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 41

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 17-B.Aubrey 61 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.11 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -1.61 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP