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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 41 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback. Penalty on PHI-21-S.Brown, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on DAL-32-T.Pride, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on DAL-83-J.Brooks, Disqualification, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.68 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP