Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 41

(1:09) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to PHI 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.67 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model