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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.95 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP