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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 12

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP