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Denver Broncos

9-7 HC Sean Payton
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Cincinnati Bengals

8-8 HC Zac Taylor
Saturday 2024-12-28 · 16:30 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DEN
37.1%
CIN
62.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.172 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than CIN

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 23 16–30
–
CIN 27 20–34
Projected margin: CIN by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

DEN

Tyler Badie RB Questionable Back

CIN

Sam Hubbard DE Out Knee
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Illness
Tanner Hudson TE Doubtful Knee
Joseph Ossai DE Questionable Illness
Geno Stone S Questionable Illness
Amarius Mims T Questionable Ankle
Tee Higgins WR Questionable Ankle
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 24
–
CIN 30

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 FG DEN (9:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 01:52 TD CIN (1:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – CIN 6
  • Q3 09:11 FG CIN (9:11) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. DEN 3 – CIN 10
  • Q3 03:14 TD DEN (3:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – CIN 10
  • Q4 11:37 TD CIN (11:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – CIN 16
  • Q4 08:56 TD DEN (8:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 19-M.Mims for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – CIN 17
  • Q4 01:31 TD CIN (1:31) 62-M.Lee reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – CIN 23
  • Q4 00:14 TD DEN (:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 23 – CIN 24
  • Q5 01:10 TD CIN (1:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 24 – CIN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (9:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 90%

    (4:32) 30-C.Brown right guard to DEN 22 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CIN 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to CIN 27 for 4 yards (41-D.Sanders; 34-J.Skinner). ** Injury Update: DEN-27-D.Mathis has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at DEN 5 for -3 yards (0-J.Cooper).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (5:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to CIN 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (9:11) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 82%

    (12:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to DEN 17 for 11 yards (21-R.Moss; 6-P.Locke).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.74 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 86%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →